North Carolina has a wonderful reputation in many things. It is one of the country’s most desirable vacation spots with beaches in the east, mountains in the west. A state that has enjoyed a lot of growth for the last 40 years, and many would agree it is one of the wealthiest states in sports and BBQ. Though a former confederate state, unlike her sibling South Carolina whom was very eager to leave the Union before the Civil War, North Carolina had a lot more reluctance to do so unlike her Deep South neighbors. Where SC was the first to rebel without much thought, NC was one of those border states which were the last to leave and side with the confederacy. Three US Presidents were born there, and ironically started politics in neighboring Tennessee. (Andrew Jackson, James K. Polk, and Andrew Johnson)
North Carolina also has a reputation as a swing state in politics. But is that still true? Let’s take a look at some history. Before the year 2000, North Carolina had the reputation of not being a swing state outside a 20 year span.
After the post-Civil War period known as Reconstruction, North Carolina had been a reliably Democratic state between 1876 and until 1968. Due to the disenfranchisement of the African American vote, Republicans did not have access to their most loyal base of support. This was enforced by poll taxes by 1900. So, Democrats largely enjoyed a one party system, with a lot of power in eastern and central part of the state. White Republicans however did have some sway in the west much in the same way eastern Tennessee had stayed pretty Republican after the Civil War. These folks in the mountains were much less reliant on slavery, and had more Unionist sympathies than their neighbors on the other side of their states. By and large however, the Democratic primaries were of higher stakes than even the General Election was. Sounds like a lot “safe states” we see today.
By 1968, things started to get more competitive. If you like political map salads, you’ll love this:
Former Vice President Richard Nixon won the state thanks to the western part of the state primarily, along with Wake County. (containing the capital of Raleigh) It was the first time a Republican carried the state since 1928. (A truly outlier year for that time when the then-popular Herbert Hoover crushed Roman Catholic New Yorker Al Smith) A funny story OurCampaigns talks about with this Nixon win was when the Republican electors didn’t know what they had to do at first since they had not been given instructions. Forty years truly showed how unprepared Republicans had been to even declare victory in this former confederate state.
Wallace done well in the eastern part of the state, mostly in the rural part of the state. George Wallace (then a famous segregationist Democratic Governor of Alabama) had been running a populist campaign that proved to be a one off, as others had been. Despite winning Deep South states like Alabama, Strom Thurmond (who himself tried something similar in 1948) helped Nixon keep Wallace at bay in the Carolinas. Indeed, he was a popular South Carolinian who had been under many political affiliations. North Carolina however proved to be uninterested in these 3rd party movements despite their historic inclination to populism and White racism just like in 1948. Perhaps it gives them a better legacy that they went for Nixon rather than Wallace.
Vice President Hubert Humphrey got saddled with 3rd place. Only winning a handful of counties thanks to newly enfranchised Black voters, and liberal counties like Orange. This was a forecast for the national Democratic Party’s future struggles in the Tar Heel state.
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=2451
The 1968 election put North Carolina on the map as an undeniable swing state. In 1972, it went Republican again in Nixon’s 49 state landslide re-election. In 1976, it went back to the Democratic column for fellow southerner Jimmy Carter. (a Georgia Governor) In 1980 it narrowly swung back to California Governor Ronald Reagan thanks in part to a bad economy. Afterwards, a Democrat would not win again in North Carolina for 28 years. North Carolina for the first time in her history was a Republican state.
The state legislature stayed Democrat thanks to older White conservative Democrats generally liking their local politicians and thanks to Black support. However, Republicans were starting to carry the Governor’s mansion more often, and you could usually count on at least one Republican being a senator. Even a very polarizing one like former Dixiecrat Jesse Helms, but we’ll save that story for another day.
In 2008 however, Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois) shocked the political scene not just by becoming the first person of color elected President, but also being Black man who won the former confederate states of North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. Florida’s southern identity has been somewhat watered down thanks to northerners relocating down to Florida, and Virginia was expected to go Blue eventually for Presidential elections thanks to the growth of the DC metro area. North Carolina however was a big surprise.
This is partly why the media loves talking about North Carolina always being in play. However, 2008 was somewhat of a fluke. Firstly, the 2008 financial crash made the Republican Party very unpopular as they were in power. Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) was neither the incumbent nor the Vice President, and was even pretty moderate, but just being a Republican made things tough. His Vice Presidential pick of Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) excited the conservative base who were unsure about McCain, but her resume and performance on the campaign trail was enough to scare away some swing voters who were otherwise likely to vote for McCain. Another factor was former Republican Congressman and Libertarian nominee Bob Barr of Georgia did far better than the spread between McCain and Obama. I don’t usually put much weight in the “split vote” argument but given Barr and his running mate Wayne Allyn Root of Nevada had been former Republicans and both generally to the Right of McCain, it is very likely enough of those voters may have considered voting for McCain under different circumstances. We don’t know for sure, but it’s very likely Barr’s ticket hurt McCain more than Obama. Some also believe Black Democratic turnout might have been unusually high thanks to excitement about Obama. Whatever it truly was, it was a fleeting victory for North Carolina Democrats. Obama didn’t win the state in 2012, and it’s been voting Red for Presidential races ever since.
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=191887
So, why does the media talk about North Carolina every election year when it’s been a Red State for basically 10 years now? Well, it’s a close state by the numbers. Always within 10 points. But does that make it a swing state?
What is a “swing state” anyhow? Oxford dictionary has it as a noun. “A US state where the two major political parties have similar levels of support among voters, viewed as important in determining the overall result of a presidential election.”
There’s an argument that could be said that locally it’s still competitive, but is it? Well, their current Governor is Roy Cooper, a Democrat. In fact, it’s not uncommon for them to have Democratic Governors despite voting Republican fore Presidential races. They’ve had one Democrat elected Senator in the 21st Century, the late Kay Hagan in 2008. (A terrible year for Republicans) To be fair, they did have John R. Edwards as Senator coming into the new century, but he was elected in 1998, and retired to run for President and Vice President after a single term. I won’t count him. Otherwise, Senators from North Carolina are Republicans.
Some say that is enough for North Carolina to be a swing state. Let’s look at an example in the reverse. Traditionally Democratic Massachusetts outside a brief 8 year interruption had Republican dominance in the Governor’s office since 1991 with their current holder being Charlie Baker, a Republican. They also had one Republican Senator this century, Scott Brown, who won a Special Election in 2010. Is Massachusetts a swing state? Most people say No, and I agree.
Now to be fair, North Carolina has some more partisan diversity in their congressional delegation than Massachusetts, and the state legislature in NC has only been Republican since the Tea Party wave since 2010 whereas Massachusetts has been Democratic for a while. But I don’t really care about little districts that flip. Nearly every state has swing districts and counties. Statewide, North Carolina is almost as consistently Red as Massachusetts is constantly voting Blue statewide.
Now obviously, Presidential races are much closer in North Carolina than in Massachusetts, so it is hardly a safe state for the GOP. One could say it resembles Ohio in that Presidential races are typically under 10 points. However, I still consider Ohio to be more of a truer swing state. (That’s a fun article for another time) Trump won it twice by 8 points, but Obama won it twice and they normally have a Senator from each party. Governor’s races have also been known to be competitive despite the Republicans having dominance in it since 2011.
I think North Carolina is a little more like the Republican version of New Mexico. New Mexico went Red once since 2000 with President George W. Bush winning it in 2004. New Mexico has changed hands on Governors too many times, usually has two Senators of the dominant party, but has not been a solid party loyalist since 2000.
A good question is, why do Republicans have an advantage in North Carolina? I now live in Ohio, but have previously lived in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. My experience in North Carolina was for 3 1/2 years between 2013 and 2017. I paid enough attention to see how things are there. My parents lived in Orange County, home of University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, and I attended school at Wake Tech Community College in South Raleigh. (Wake County) I also worked for a time in Durham County as well as visited many different parts of the state.
Here’s how it works. The cities like Durham, Fayetteville, and Charlotte have a high racial and ethnic minority community. (In fact, Durham’s African American population is slightly above the White European population) The Black voters like elsewhere in the US are pretty reliable in voting Democratic if they go vote. (Though there are some notable exceptions among Black evangelical Protestants and non-denominational Christians who tend to be more conservative) Other places where there are colleges and universities like Chapel Hill and Wilmington have younger populations that tend to be a bit more liberal than the state average more often than not. You also have many transplants from northern states like Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio who move down there for work. (Though some enjoy cheaper living in some cases, the weather, food, ext.) Far from all are Democrats or liberals, but there are more Democratic-inclined voter than ones who vote Republican. (At least compared to the homegrown North Carolinians)
These groups are why North Carolina Democrats have had hope. But it simply is not enough. The rural areas are very conservative or populist. I frankly was not surprised Donald Trump carried the state and the North Carolina primaries twice. Outside of transplant Republicans in the cities, you find mostly very religious (mostly evangelical Christian) voters and populists who put a high priority on issues like guns, immigration (almost to an obsessive point) and farm subsidies. This group still solidly outweighs the groups considered the North Carolina Democratic Party’s base.
To put it simply, Democrats get a little naive about their chances in North Carolina. They simply can’t win alone on minority votes, college kids, and transplants alone. Not without doing better in rural areas.
This is the 2016 Presidential map:
This map in some ways brings you back to 1968. Trump took most of the Nixon counties, Clinton got most of the Humphrey counties, and both parties split Wallace country, but slightly more for Republicans.
The fact Orange and Durham are the darkest Blue does not surprise me. Folks there were VERY liberal. Some would be shocked that they are still in a southern city talking with some of these people.
Likewise, you go a couple counties south of all that, you find Harnett County. A little south of my community college this county lies, (wonderful waffle place in the city of Dunn by the way) is almost the polar opposite. I can see why Trump won big there. Typical city interests vs. rural interests. Not uncommon in many states.
Now yes, the vote in 2016 was still close, but let us borrow some numbers from OurCampaigns.
Trump (R): 2,362,631 (49.83%)
Clinton (D): 2,189,316 (46.17%)
Johnson (L): 130,126 (2.74%)
Write-Ins: 47,386 (1.00%)
Stein (G): 12,105 (0.26%)
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=784387
Many Democrats blame third parties for giving us Trump. I know people in North Carolina blame it for Trump carry it.
But if you add up former Governor Gary Johnson’s votes and Dr. Jill Stein’s votes and add them to Secretary Hillary Clinton’s numbers, it is only 2,331,547. That is still losing North Carolina to Trump. It is also no guarantee all those 3rd party votes would have naturally gone to Clinton under different circumstances. Johnson after all had been a Republican Governor of New Mexico in the 90’s before he became Libertarian, his running mate Bill Weld was also a Republican Governor in the 90’s, but in Massachusetts. Weld even once said he believed “75%” of the voters their ticket got this year would have gone to Trump. Not sure if the number would have been that high, but the point is, most people who voted Libertarian in 2016 were not thinking about Clinton as an option at all. Perhaps a few who really disliked Trump might have considered voting for Clinton, but highly unlikely. Jill Stein gets a lot of venom for splitting the vote with Clinton. Given Stein’s liberalism, it’s probably easier to see more Stein voters going to Clinton in other circumstances than Johnson voters, but some of Stein’s foreign policy positions like Russia were more in line with Trump than Clinton. It’s also important to realize some third party voters could have been first time voters, or may not have even participated if their candidate of choice had not been running.
Now, sure, that 1% misc. write-in vote going to Clinton with all Stein and Johnson votes could have surely made North Carolina Blue, but you’re talking about thousands upon thousands of things going right for Hillary Clinton. It is not certain all of them would have voted for Clinton, much less all Libertarian and Green voters going Democratic.
Full disclosure, I voted in the Republican primary that year for then-Ohio Governor John Kasich, and I voted for Johnson/Weld in the General. Had that ticket not been there, I would have probably wrote in someone else. But, I’m just one guy. I don’t know what other Johnson voters would have done as a Plan B.
What do we get from all this? The 2008 Obama win was an outlier. Even with the fear of Donald Trump, North Carolina Democrats just don’t have enough people to overtake loyal Republican voters in the state. The 2020 race was indeed closer and took days to call the state, but unsurprising to many, Trump still won.
Perhaps like Senator Kagan did in 2008, it probably wouldn’t hurt to embrace the party’s more moderate tendencies to carry the state again. Governor Cooper also won twice embracing his moderate credentials. They might win over some independents and less partisan conservatives back on their side.
Until that happens though, I say North Carolina is not a real swing state. It’s a state worth watching like New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Indiana, sure. But the media putting so much attention on North Carolina for Presidential elections is just silly. They just don’t “swing” enough to talk about like key swing states like Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and even Iowa. To be honest, that’s probably partly why Clinton lost. She campaigned a lot in North Carolina in the end, gave up on Ohio in September of ’16, and didn’t even visit Michigan and Wisconsin after the primaries. (She lost those last two primaries too by the way) It’s one of those states like Texas that Democrats sink too much energy into only to lose it. Republicans sometimes do this too in a state like Minnesota.
The jury is still out if Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia will become true swing states (in some cases again) after the Trump era, but I just don’t see North Carolina being disloyal enough to the Republican Party yet. Many pundits and some local Tar Heel residents will disagree with me. But I think I made my case solid using facts why North Carolina is still indeed a Red State. (Albeit, maybe Light Red, but certainly not Purple) It’s a diverse state that is still growing, but I need to see more before I start calling it Purple.
