Some of you may remember Evan McMullin from 2016. There was a section of the “NeverTrump” movement traditionally in the Republican Party desperately looking for an option in the General election after Donald Trump shockingly won the Republican nomination that year. While many NeverTrumpers who voted in the Republican Primary were contemplating voting for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, and Darrell Castle among others, many still weren’t thrilled with their other options. So, Evan McMullin of Utah was recruited to run a last-effort independent campaign. A ticket he headed with Mindy Finn of Texas as his Vice Presidential running mate.
Unfortunately for McMullin, he missed a lot of deadlines to get on the ballot in many states. He was only on the ballot in a handful, and a registered write-in in some others. He himself knew that his only chance to win the Presidency would be to deny both Mr. Trump and Secretary Clinton 270 Electoral Votes so the House of Representatives would ultimately decide between the top 3 vote-getters. Even winning one state could have been enough. Still, his campaign garnered a lot of attention. At one point, he was even leading in polling in Utah! One poll had him at 31%, Trump at 27%, and Clinton at 24%.
https://www.gbtribune.com/news/trending-topics/poll-evan-mcmullin-leads-trump-in-battleground-utah/
It was unusual for Utah to be in the spotlight like this. It had not voted for a Democrat since 1964 when President Lyndon Johnson crushed Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. (Partly because of the sympathy vote for John F. Kennedy’s assassination, but also because of fears of Goldwater’s more radical platform on certain issues at the time) Utah for most of her history had been pretty loyal to the Republican Party. It was George W. Bush’s best state in 2004 and Mitt Romney’s best state in 2012. If you want to go way back, it was one of two states President William Howard Taft won in his miserable 1912 campaign which was in a 3 way race. Vermont and Utah were the two Republican stalwarts that year as President Teddy Roosevelt was running a protest campaign that split the normal Republican vote which benefitted the long out of power Democrats. But what was different about 2016? Well… Donald Trump. Utah voters were not pleased with Donald Trump’s pitch and history. In fact, if you look at the Utah Republican Caucus. Trump came in 3rd behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Ohio Governor John Kasich. (who got silver) Some sources speculate that as conservative and loyal to the GOP as Utah was, Trump’s issue was mostly Mormon voters. Pew Research in 2014 found that 55% of the state identified as a Mormon.
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/state/utah/
There is speculation from sources Mormons were turned off by Trump’s history of combative speech toward others, his questionable morals, and even some of his more hardline positions like immigration. So, it took Donald Trump to get this state out of the Dark Red column for the first time in years. Evan McMullin once tweeted that he never voted for anyone who wasn’t a Republican, until he voted for himself in 2016.
Ultimately though, some in the LDS Church (which most Mormons identify with) were warming up to Trump as November got closer mostly for a fear that Mrs. Clinton would be more radical. Still, not all Mormons were willing to compromise with their principles. On Election Night, Trump won Utah, but he greatly underperformed a normal Republican only getting 45% of the vote. Clinton won 26%, about average for a Democrat in the 21st Century. (Only about a couple points higher than what Obama got against Romney 4 years earlier) Then you have McMullin coming in a pretty strong 3rd with 21%.
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=784395
So think about this. On the surface, it would be disappointing to the average McMullin supporter that after polling 31% and getting gold, he ended getting bronze at 21%. But, it’s still pretty interesting that a campaign that was only on the ballot in a handful of states and had a slim chance of being elected President still convinced over 1/5th of a state to vote for it. Imagine if McMullin didn’t have such a late start?
That transitions me into the Senate Race this year. Senator Mike Lee is running for re-election.
Mike Lee, like Mr. McMullin, was originally a critic of Trump. It wasn’t until sometime in Trump’s first and only term that Lee began his tune.
Evan McMullin is trying again as an independent because he has some bones to pick with the Utah Senator. They are included in his campaign’s prospectus I got in the mail recently. (Not sure how his team got my new Ohio address, but I have contributed to the Kasich, Johnson, and Bill Weld campaigns in other states so maybe he’s renting old campaign lists)
McMullin seems to be positioning himself as a moderate conservative who can strike a cord with people annoyed by Washington dysfunction, and recent antics in the national Republican Party to defend former President Trump. Lee has a connection to that.
Another thing that I found interesting is the other side of the prospectus.
Not only does it tell an interesting story about his upbringing, his time in the CIA, advising Congress, but the polling as well. Mike Lee’s approval rating was only 45% in a state that incumbents normally have no problem getting re-elected in. (KSL News poll from 2021) McMullin also lead 50–45 against Lee among voters familiar with both candidates.
Now, assuming these aren’t just outliers, that means Mike Lee is vulnerable. Will he lose? Not necessarily, but he may have to spend a lot more money in Red Utah than he had hoped.
Now, can Evan McMullin win? Well, running as an independent can have perks and challenges. On the one hand, he avoids baggage that the major parties (and even some 3rd parties) have, he’s allowed to run as himself. The challenge however is he’ll have a lot of big interests making sure he’s not relevant. (Party machinery, special interests that don’t line up with him, ext.) This lack of party affiliation makes earning money hard. Few independents have been able to do well with this unless they are already rich like Ross Perot. Or have a high name ID in their localities. Bernie Sanders has been re-elected Senator in Vermont as an independent (with a strong socialist-tilting) many times with Democrats usually just endorsing him rather than fielding their own candidate. Lincoln Chafee also won as Governor of Rhode Island in 2010 as an independent after leaving the Republican Party after he lost his Senate re-election in 2006. (a notoriously bad year for the GOP) Being the late John Chafee’s son, and having a record of bucking the national Republican Party on a majority of issues played well to the average Rhode Islander.
But can McMullin do it in Utah?
Well, a lot of things need to go right.
- Democratic support: He needs it. He would benefit greatly if Democrats don’t field their own candidate or ignore that candidate. Getting their endorsement would be even better for him. Democrats should probably wake up and smell the coffee that they are probably not going to beat Mike Lee in normally Red Utah. However, supporting McMullin who they agree with on far more issues than Lee could be their ticket to making the Utah Republican Party sweat. McMullin himself is already respected by some corners of the Democratic Party for being an ex-Republican who repudiated the recent populist shift in the party resulting from Trump. Congressman Ben McAdams who is mentioned in the prospectus was in fact an elected Democrat from Utah, and is supporting his current campaign.
- The more unpopular Lee is, the better it is for McMullin:
If Lee doesn’t get his approvals up, he’s a vulnerable incumbent. He has an advantage given Utah has been historically Republican. But crazier things have happened than a comfortable incumbent losing an election.
3. Exposure, Exposure, Exposure:
I think Evan McMullin should knock on every door in Utah if that is what it takes. He has some name ID from his 2016 run, but to jog people’s memories, he needs to get into the debates and really WOW viewers. Getting good commercials out there, and being on local TV and radio helps. Independents have to work twice as hard at this. But, if one gets exposed, there is a bigger chance voters could hear something they like.
4. Mitt Romney:
It’s hard to say if Utah’s other Senator, Mitt Romney endorses anyone in this race. But it would be interesting. Romney staying neutral could be good enough for McMullin. But Romney, a Republican who has long been a foe of Trump could theoretically endorse Evan McMullin. (who endorsed Romney when he ran himself in 2018)
Now some might ask, “Well, why did Romney pass on McMullin in 2016 to write in someone else?”
It’s complicated. Voting for McMullin might have made sense given how competitive Utah was, and how much Romney loathed Trump. Before Romney was a Utah Senator, he was a Massachusetts Governor. Gary Johnson’s runningmate was another former Republican Governor of Massachusetts, Bill Weld. Weld and Romney had long been good friends. Weld supported Romney’s two bids for the White House and his Senate bid in Massachusetts in 1994, and were both part of that Republican domination streak of the Corner Office in Massachusetts which has largely continued even to this day. (Minus a short 8 year interruption) Romney himself was contemplating voting for the Johnson-Weld ticket only being held back by the Libertarian Party’s platform on issues like marijuana legalization. Though he said he’d probably have been more comfortable to have voted for them had it been Weld/Johnson. (Before then, he only really knew Gary Johnson from the 2011 Republican Primary race in which both Johnson and Romney were facing off) Still, I think while Romney probably liked McMullin, he didn’t want hard feelings with Weld. So, he basically stayed neutral. Got to respect someone who doesn’t want to burn bridges.
Today, Romney doesn’t really have friends challenging McMullin. Lee went a very different direction in the Republican Party than Romney. Unless Romney plans to run for re-election in 2024, he owes Lee and the RNC nothing. Number 4 is more realistic now than it has ever been.
So, what is Evan McMullin’s chances?
Well, Joe Biden got 37% of Utah in 2020. Trump got 58% in his failed re-election bid which is far better than 2016, but it still very much underperforms recent Republican performances. Biden’s 37% looks more promising to non-Republicans because it means the GOP’s historical grip on the state is starting to wane. Biden’s 37% is the best performance by a Democrat in the 21st Century.
https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=874067
Part of this could be Trump and how Mormons are not always pleased with him, but Salt Lake City seems to be getting a lot of new transplants there thanks to the welcoming business climate. These new residents aren’t always Republican and Mormon. They might be more open minded to a different direction than some of the locals who probably are members of their local party chapter.
That gives an opening to McMullin. No longer a Republican, but has things in common with the average Utah voter and newcomers that could appeal to them.
Mike Lee has the incumbent advantage, and I’m not saying put money against him winning again, but don’t sleep on Evan McMullin’s chances neither. This is not just another quixotic independent run for Senate.
